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Mingo
 
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: 9/19/2008 4:43:43 PM
Posts: 98,
Visits: 771
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White Marlin
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 11:21:33 PM
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fish24/7 (8/17/2008)
looks like the models are changing, do yall think we will be ok?, live on the water and need info....Just keep a watchfull eye on all sources of info. If you live on the water you better always prepare yourself every June 1st of every year. Just as everyone else should do the same. That will eliminate the need to run out and run around trying to get prepared along with all the other last minute idiots. We will know more in about 24-48 hours with this one. The models BAMS, BAMD, BAMM that put it over our area directly are purely statistical/historical models. Meaning they mostly do not use current data as input. They are a tool for use, but have far less weight versus the other models. This is what the NHC has to say about the numerical models: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "H2O: 2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession." The user formerly known as Knot a Yacht Jon
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Snapper
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: Yesterday @ 9:15:35 PM
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Damn sure appreciate all the info and discussion. Lets see what happens on the turn to the north at Cuuuba. 
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Ruby Red Lip
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: 11/14/2008 8:39:09 PM
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| Right now it looks like Fay is taking almost the same track as Dennis did in 05. Have to see what this storm does the next couple of days.
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Grouper
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: 11/13/2008 9:51:28 AM
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fish24/7 (8/17/2008)
looks like the models are changing, do yall think we will be ok?, live on the water and need info....Not sure if you are joking here or not. But if you aren't, this storm presents one of the major problems iwth hurricanes. Right now, there's no certainity where its going. however, there is some certainity it will hit Wednesday, probabaly afternoon evening time frame. That means you have to decide now what you are going to do and act on it. If you wait till later Monday, or Tuesday, until they get a good handle on where its going, you'll be SOL.
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Snapper
Group: Forum Members
Last Login: 11/13/2008 9:49:23 AM
Posts: 379,
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Well as for right now, anyones guess is as good as the rest. The post I made previously, containing my thoughts on fay, is starting to seem more and more as something to consider... But one thing anyone on the gulf coast could almost guarantee is.... If jim cantore is anywhere near you, you might as well go ahead and pack your bags!
The track is looking a lot like Dennis, it just depends on how long it remains on a wnw track. They predict it to be making the NW turn by tomorrow in the early AM.. but if that doesnt happen, look for the models to shift west once again. Everything will be a lot clearer based on what happens in the next 24 hours. It will make a Northern turn at some point, its just a matter of when. Im sure Genesis will let everyone know what to expect, just like he has for the last several years. . My guess is that the big bend is gonna get a strong cat1 or low cat2... but its still early to be certain..
ROLL TIDE ROLL
Support Catch And Release
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Trigger
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Last Login: 2 days ago @ 3:47:26 PM
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Spoke to Jim Cantore last night, he hasnt made any travel plans yet.....
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