The way these models are shifting run-to-run is a little un-nerving, and it means the forces that steer Fay around are weak and unpredicable.

translation - "we are not sure"  

Crown Weather Services

Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 730 pm EDT

Fay: Fay continues to surprise with every move. The storm did not weaken over land as anticipated and in fact, it actually strengthened today while tracking over south Florida. Fay currently has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. Given that Fay looks so well-defined on radar and satellite, it seems pretty likely that it will become a hurricane when it emerges into the Atlantic east of Florida late tonight. The SHIPS model brings Fay up to a Category 1 hurricane and the GFDL and HWRF models forecast Fay to max out at Category 2 strength. So, it is not out of the question for Fay to be a strong Category 1 or borderline Category 2 hurricane upon landfall on Thursday afternoon over northeastern Florida.

Fay is currently tracking north-northeast at a forward speed of 7 mph. Currently Fay is embedded within a weak southerly flow between a mid-level trough of low pressure and a ridge of high pressure. However, this steering pattern is forecast to change soon as a high pressure system begins to develop north of Fay. This new steering pattern will force Fay to move toward the west-northwest toward the coast of North Florida and south Georgia and come ashore in northeast Florida on Thursday afternoon. After that, it should be noted that the GFS and European models forecast Fay to track into the northern Gulf of Mexico by early this weekend and possibly make another landfall somewhere on the northern US Gulf Coast late Sunday or early Monday.

Due to the forecast landfall and the likelihood that Fay will be a hurricane upon landfall, Hurricane Watches have been issued by the National Hurricane Center for northeastern Florida and southern Georgia. For detailed local information on Fay, please refer to our Tropical Storm Fay Page.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Wednesday morning.

Click For Tropical Weather Information

Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

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jim.owens@morgankeegan.com

(M)205-907-8042

With the models looking like spagetti, and slow eratic movement - no telling where she winds up.

Hope she is just South GA soaker!!!!

Yeah that run is a doozy for us.  The way the models have got this one wrong all along out past 48 hours means no one really knows.

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Jon