From Weather Underground:

South Carolina? New Orleans? Where will Fay go next?
The computer models continue to show an unusual amount of disagreement about the longer term path of Fay. The official NHC forecast follows the GFDL and HWRF models, which takes Fay northwards through the Florida Peninsula. However, the latest runs of these models now predict Fay will emerge off the east coast of Florida, restrengthen a bit to a 60-70 mph tropical storm, then make landfall Wednesday along the Georgia/South Carolina coast. This solution assumes that the trough of low pressure turning Fay northward will be strong and enough and be moving slow enough to pull Fay all the way northwards into the U.S.

A weaker trough is predicted by the rest of the models, which foresee that Fay will stall over central Florida or the adjacent Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will then build in, forcing Fay westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A second landfall in the Florida Panhandle or in Louisiana near New Orleans is then a possibility. Since more and more of the models are trending this way, I believe this solution has an equal chance of being correct. "The Joker" may be around to trouble us for another full week or longer.


"YOU CAN RUN, BUT YOU'LL ONLY DIE TIRED"

Have speargun.  Will dive.

www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html

Crown Weather Services

Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 610 am EDT

Fay: Fay is now making landfall early this morning near Cape Romano, Florida as a 60 mph tropical storm. Fay didn't make hurricane strength and the storm is now expected to slowly weaken as it tracks across the Florida Peninsula today into tonight. The center is expected to emerge into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach on Wednesday morning. Once this happens, Fay will find itself in a more favorable environment and some restrengthening is possible off of the northeast coast of Florida later Wednesday into Thursday.

Fay is currently tracking north-northeast at a forward speed of 9 mph. A model consensus is now building with the idea of Fay being trapped underneath a high pressure system with even the GFDL model now backing off on a prolonged northward motion and a track back into the Savannah area of Georgia late Thursday night. The overall track model guidance is in a little better agreement on this scenario, however, they still have some large differences in the overall track with a consensus of the models pulling the storm out into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach and then recurving the storm back inland near Jacksonville on Thursday afternoon.

Ok, first the easy part of the forecast: Fay will track across Florida today into tonight and then emerge off of the northeast coast of Florida near Daytona Beach sometime Wednesday morning. After this, the forecast for Fay becomes very difficult with the GFS model forecasting two more landfalls, one over northeast Florida on Friday morning and a second on the Alabama coast on Sunday night. The European model is forecasting a sharp turn to the west with an eventual landfall on the Mississippi coast on Sunday. The 4 km SPC WRF/NMM model is very interesting. This model forecasts that Fay will exit into the Atlantic near Vero Beach late this afternoon and forecasts Fay to track slowly east-northeast tonight and be located about 75 to 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral first thing Wednesday morning.

At this point, I like the overall forecast from the National Hurricane Center, however, Fay will really need to be watched closely once it tracks into the Atlantic on Wednesday morning and right now I am considering all possible scenarios, including the 4 km SPC WRF/NMM model scenario, quite viable as the overall synoptic pattern will be changing very quickly over the next several days and things will be quite fluid. So, stay tuned!

For detailed local information on Fay, please refer to our Tropical Storm Fay Page.

Elsewhere in the tropics: I am also watching an area of low pressure now located about 825 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery early this morning indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated, however, the latest wind shear forecast indicates that wind shear values will increase to 20 to 30 knots by tomorrow and continue through this weekend. Therefore, I am not expecting development from this tropical disturbance anytime soon. This forecast shear appears to be from an upper-level low pressure system now located to the north-northwest of this system. This upper level low is forecast to drop southwestward and cause this strong shear. If this disturbance can hold together past 60 West Longitude, which it should cross this line sometime this weekend, then environmental conditions may improve some and this system may need to be watched closely by next week, if it survives the shear.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Wednesday morning. If there should be any significant changes with Fay during the day today, then I will issue a discussion sometime this evening.

http://www.forumpictureprocessor.com/gallery.asp?gallery=1790

jim.owens@morgankeegan.com

(M)205-907-8042

he started the comment a while back, just after he saw the movie Dark Knight.  Basically, he calls it the joker because it keeps hinting at doing different things, doesn't do what its suppose to do and keeps causing surprises.

here's his original post about it (August 13):

The forecast for 92L
Watching the the model forecasts for 92L over the past three days has, for me, been akin to watching the latest Batman movie, The Dark Knight. As the Joker prepares for one of his deadly pranks, the music rises in pitch and volume, and the audience nervously waits to see what terrible mayhem the Joker has planned next. Like music in the movie, the reliable GFDL model forecasts of 92L the past three days have risen in pitch and volume. The GFLD has been forecasting successively stronger hurricanes each day, culminating in yesterday afternoon's run predicting a Category 3 hurricane plowing through the Bahama Islands towards Florida this weekend. Well, our Batman--dry air--has come to the rescue this time, significantly disrupting 92L. However, it remains to be seen if the Joker--92L--has one more trick up its sleeve. The GFDL model is still calling for 92L to develop into a borderline Category 1 hurricane by early next week, as is the latest run of the SHIPS intensity model. The other models are less gung-ho, and most of the models foresee that 92L will come close enough to the high mountains of the Dominican Republic to cause the storm trouble.

Thank you for the info.  That explains the term.  I did not see that post by Dr. Masters.  Again, thanks for your time.

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Have speargun.  Will dive.

Oh fun... rain... rain... and more rain.. no fishing for me this weekend.

Then again... I should count my blessings... at least it's NOT a hurricane.

http://ralphstropicalweather.homestead.com/RalphTropicalWeatherOut.html 

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