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Snapper
 
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Good Stuff Tom. Thanks for the post.   The reference regarding your Mother is absolutely disgusting. Just goes to show ya.... well, anyway, you know the rest of my sentence.  Keep the good info coming !! Looking forward to it! Talk to you soon! 
_________________________________________________________________________________"Kindness is the language which the deaf can hear and the blind can see." ~Mark Twain If You Keep Doing What You Always Did - You Will Get What You ALways Got - Take It One Day At A Time  Rum will get you thru times with no money, better than money will get you thru times no with Rum!!  A friend to all, and have no enemies!! 
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Sailfish
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Boatjob1 (5/29/2008)
How in the world did you know she was a Democrat???????????
Again, this post was meant as an interesting prospective on the subject. I didn't write it, agree or disagree, it's still very interesting info.... See ya at the pump's..........
It's not really interesting except to see how stupid someone could be and how biased and full of shit someone can make statistics seem when they have an agenda.
There are tid bits in there that are true, but most of it is just horse shit. Take for instance the supposition that the number of refineries is too low to produce fuel. That's bullshit and the ones we have now are not running anywhere near capacity. Then step to the idea that limited refineries - which there are not - make it difficult for the stupid additives to be added. They don't. Additives are added at delivery by the truck driver. Move on to blaming the democrats for not building more refineries. I'll grant you that the hippies have obstructed refinery building, but the laissez faire republicans have deregulated the oil companies and allowed them to merge into a monopolistic condition. They've bought out competitive refineries and closed them because they weren't profitable.
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Sailfish
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jamesm1976 (5/29/2008)
Personally, I think folks that own 31' Contenders with 600 hp two stroke engines hanging off of the back of them are 95% responsible for the cost of fuel. that, and speculators that have artificially inflated the cost of oil, much like they did tech stocks and real estate.
Dude, can't us diesel burning big ass SUV driving liberals get some blame? Persecutor!
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Grouper
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With all the PM's I've gotten I think most were offended by the reference to my Mother from out of the blue, thus the attacks on mr. "social progress"............... Again, I posted this for informational purposes only as far as what is flowing on the Internet in the Oilfield. I do know that the refineries are at max processing capacity. If you don't believe this, watch and see what happens when ANYTHING is reported down at a refinery. The futures market jumps through the roof and the price at the pump sucks out more of your net income that was intended for food, higher property taxes, increased homeowners insurance, ect., ect. All I have to really say on this is, I hope and prey that one day the powers that be will balance this out with our own natural resources and what needs to be brought in from outside sourcing without diminishing our stock to the point of severe dependency............ This was not meant as a slam to either group as I am independent and will make my mind up when I am convinced that one party or the other has OUR best interest at heart for the good of all concerned.... Of course, many will disagree wit this, but guess what, welcome to America. I have learned volumes by reading the input from many that have taken the time to respond to allot of these post, and yes, even you shakedown............... Tight lines to all, and I think I'm going to hang around the fishing reports a little more for some positive local info................ T
GUN CONTROL; USING BOTH HANDS Robins 60th birthday celebration (2005), the guy's still got it! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0d1HilfLxA Calling an illegal alien an 'undocumented immigrant'
is like calling a drug dealer an 'unlicensed pharmacist '.
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Mingo
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This is interesting blowjob1. Now you care about your mom? Funny how things change. Speaking of social progress, I noticed you quit posting when your boy "tunaman" got called out. What happened there?
"Shakedown" 31' Contender 2x300 hpdi
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Sailfish
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Boatjob1 (5/29/2008)
With all the PM's I've gotten I think most were offended by the reference to my Mother from out of the blue, thus the attacks on mr. "social progress"............... Again, I posted this for informational purposes only as far as what is flowing on the Internet in the Oilfield. I do know that the refineries are at max processing capacity. If you don't believe this, watch and see what happens when ANYTHING is reported down at a refinery. The futures market jumps through the roof and the price at the pump sucks out more of your net income that was intended for food, higher property taxes, increased homeowners insurance, ect., ect.All I have to really say on this is, I hope and prey that one day the powers that be will balance this out with our own natural resources and what needs to be brought in from outside sourcing without diminishing ourstock to the point of severe dependency............This was not meant as a slamto eithergroup as I am independent and will make my mind up when I am convinced that one party or the other has OUR best interest at heart for the good of all concerned....Of course, many will disagree wit this, but guess what, welcome to America. I have learned volumes by reading the input from many that have taken the time to respond toallot of these post, and yes, even you shakedown............... Tight lines to all, and I think I'm going to hang around the fishing reports a little more for some positive local info................ T
I will guarantee that the mother comment was an unfortunate coincidence that meant nothing except in the context of a recently departed mother. Bad taste, and bad timing. But the refineries are NOT running at capacity. Do some research. There are many reports and the most recent ones I've seen showed about 80%.
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Mingo
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Xanadu (5/29/2008)
I will guarantee that the mother comment was an unfortunate coincidence that meant nothing except in the context of a recently departed mother. Bad taste, and bad timing.If your mother just passed, you have my condolences. Bad taste? No, given the fact I was unaware of this. Bad timing? Possibly, even though they meant nothing.
"Shakedown" 31' Contender 2x300 hpdi
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Grouper
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Xanadu (5/29/2008)
I will guarantee that the mother comment was an unfortunate coincidence that meant nothing except in the context of a recently departed mother. Bad taste, and bad timing. But the refineries are NOT running at capacity. Do some research. There are many reports and the most recent ones I've seen showed about 80%. Hello Xanadu. This is the info that I'm getting. It could be wrong and if I'm wrong please correct me........ Thanxxxxxxxxxxxxxx "Refineries Not enough U.S. oil refining capacity. Existing refineries in the U.S. produce gasoline and other end-use products in the 90 percent plus range of capacity. While refining capacity has crept up a small amount since 2005 through operating efficiencies, the solution — adding significant refinery capacity — is more easily said than done. People don’t want to live near refineries, and refineries are subject to tight environmental restrictions. No new refinery has been built in the US since 1976. The lack of enough refineries is being made up for by imported products such as gasoline and other refined products — averaging about 13.4 million barrels per day in 2007."
GUN CONTROL; USING BOTH HANDS Robins 60th birthday celebration (2005), the guy's still got it! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0d1HilfLxA Calling an illegal alien an 'undocumented immigrant'
is like calling a drug dealer an 'unlicensed pharmacist '.
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Trigger
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Shakedown, you are proof of how far down our society has fallen. It has ALWAYS been bad taste to say about his mother some of the things you said.That you find it acceptable says worlds about you.
Life is too short to skip fishing.
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Trigger
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Xanadu...don't know where you got your figures, but every site I went to says between 95 and 98% capacity which for production considering the different grades is very effecient.We are down to 143 refineries from a high of 154 and no more are allowed to be built, compliments of the environmentalists.
Life is too short to skip fishing.
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Sailfish
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Boatjob1 (5/29/2008)
Xanadu (5/29/2008)
I will guarantee that the mother comment was an unfortunate coincidence that meant nothing except in the context of a recently departed mother. Bad taste, and bad timing. But the refineries are NOT running at capacity. Do some research. There are many reports and the most recent ones I've seen showed about 80%.
Hello Xanadu. This is the info that I'm getting. It could be wrong and if I'm wrong please correct me........ Thanxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
"Refineries
Not enough U.S. oil refining capacity. Existing refineries in the U.S. produce gasoline and other end-use products in the 90 percent plus range of capacity. While refining capacity has crept up a small amount since 2005 through operating efficiencies, the solution — adding significant refinery capacity — is more easily said than done. People don’t want to live near refineries, and refineries are subject to tight environmental restrictions. No new refinery has been built in the US since 1976. The lack of enough refineries is being made up for by imported products such as gasoline and other refined products — averaging about 13.4 million barrels per day in 2007."
Read what you posted with a critical eye and understand that it was written as it was to sell you on the idea it sold you on. First, cite the article and tell me what date it was written. It refers to 05 which is after the hurricane season of 04 and possibly after Katrina and Wilma. It also cites 07 as having "crept up" since. The word crept has a connotation to it, now doesn't it? Then you get to the kicker. "Approaching 90%" could mean 89.5 of perhaps as little as 85%. If the author is as agenda driven as my cynical nature would have me believe, he could be outright lying and citing 82% as approaching 90. He could also be citing percentages of running refineries knowing that some were shut down for hurricane damage. Whatever the case is, the recent report I read said something like 85% and even 90% is not a shortage. There is no rationing of gas. All the stations have gasoline so there is no shortage. There is speculative rationale for a potential shortage and that, in my mind, is hysteria. Plenty of gas, plenty of oil as evidenced by inventories, yet prices have increased 50 cents in the past month.
Citing the questionable fact that no new refineries have been built also throws up the BS flag. As I said before, oil companies have bought out their smaller competition and consolidated refining operations. What this means is THEY HAVE CLOSED REFINERIES. Why would a self interested and unregulated oil company close refineries and increase supply? The wouldn't because they make more money by feigning shortages and acting as a monopoly. And while I'll grant you that environmentalists and others don't want a refinery in their yard - and you and I do not want refineries in Pensacola Bay - the fact is that there are fewer refineries today than there were 5, 10 or 25 years ago. So you can blame eco nuts and Democrats for stopping new ones, but you've got to blame REPUBLICAN POLITICIANS AND OIL COMPANIES for closing the old ones.
And we're dancing all around the real reason oil and gas have gone up crazy amounts in the past couple of years. Primarily, the increase in gasoline is related to the decrease in the value of the US Dollar. Blame who you want, but decreased demand for dollars worldwide has happened as we've run up our federal debt and beebopped from bubble to bubble with tech stocks to housing. Bush and the Republican liberals have untaxed and spent us into the poor house relative to where we were a few years ago. For whatever reason, we have attempted to supply side ourselves into prosperity. The all out fear of the word recession prompted Bush to infamously suggest that we go shopping to help end the 9/11 fears. We've spent a trillion or so in Iraq having been told Iraqi oil would pay for everything and that, my friend, has been a huge drain on our economy and our currency.
Hope that helps.
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Sailfish
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kingfish501 (5/29/2008)
Xanadu...don't know where you got your figures, but every site I went to says between 95 and 98% capacity which for production considering the different grades is very effecient.We are down to 143 refineries from a high of 154 and no more are allowed to be built, compliments of the environmentalists.
Another crock of shit. There are permits in the works and there have been steps to make the BS process quicker and get the environuts out of the way. However, there have also been overhauls and major expansions. In fact, there is a BP commercial running right now that touts their multi billion dollar expansion to an existing huge refinery. All bullshit aside, the oil companies find refining as less profitable than other endeavors so they don't do it. They face no market competition because they've merged themselves into one huge monolithic mass that doesn't have competition.
Perhaps congress should take up some effort to break up the monopoly in petro like they did to Ma Bell back in the day.
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Grouper
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More and current info;;;;;;;; | | | | | | U.S. Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (Percent) | |
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| 1985 | 74.0 | 73.8 | 73.7 | 76.5 | 78.4 | 79.3 | 80.8 | 77.7 | 76.9 | 78.6 | 80.3 | 81.2 | | 1986 | 81.4 | 77.9 | 75.9 | 81.5 | 86.0 | 86.3 | 84.1 | 86.8 | 85.5 | 82.6 | 83.7 | 83.6 | | 1987 | 81.8 | 79.9 | 78.6 | 81.2 | 82.5 | 85.4 | 86.7 | 86.7 | 85.5 | 82.7 | 82.3 | 83.9 | | 1988 | 82.8 | 80.9 | 83.3 | 84.0 | 85.7 | 86.0 | 86.5 | 87.4 | 83.7 | 83.4 | 83.9 | 85.1 | | 1989 | 86.2 | 82.8 | 83.8 | 83.7 | 86.5 | 89.6 | 88.9 | 89.3 | 88.4 | 86.1 | 86.1 | 84.0 | | | 1990 | 87.8 | 87.9 | 83.9 | 85.0 | 87.1 | 89.1 | 92.4 | 90.7 | 91.1 | 83.5 | 84.2 | 82.8 | | 1991 | 82.5 | 84.4 | 83.2 | 84.6 | 87.5 | 89.8 | 88.8 | 89.1 | 88.3 | 83.4 | 83.7 | 86.6 | | 1992 | 83.4 | 81.3 | 85.1 | 85.5 | 89.4 | 92.4 | 91.9 | 89.1 | 90.7 | 89.3 | 90.1 | 87.5 | | 1993 | 86.8 | 86.6 | 89.3 | 91.3 | 92.8 | 95.1 | 95.1 | 92.7 | 92.8 | 91.8 | 91.9 | 91.2 | | 1994 | 89.8 | 88.7 | 87.6 | 92.4 | 95.4 | 95.8 | 95.5 | 96.4 | 94.4 | 89.8 | 92.7 | 92.6 | | | 1995 | 89.6 | 87.9 | 86.7 | 90.5 | 94.0 | 95.6 | 94.0 | 94.0 | 95.6 | 90.5 | 92.1 | 93.3 | | 1996 | 90.6 | 90.2 | 91.8 | 95.0 | 95.8 | 96.4 | 94.9 | 95.0 | 95.9 | 94.6 | 94.2 | 94.3 | | 1997 | 89.1 | 88.0 | 90.6 | 92.6 | 97.5 | 97.8 | 97.1 | 98.9 | 99.6 | 97.0 | 95.8 | 97.2 | | 1998 | 93.3 | 90.7 | 94.7 | 97.5 | 98.4 | 99.1 | 99.2 | 99.9 | 95.0 | 89.6 | 94.8 | 95.1 | | 1999 | 90.4 | 90.0 | 90.9 | 94.6 | 93.9 | 93.5 | 94.9 | 95.5 | 94.1 | 91.1 | 92.0 | 90.4 | | | 2000 | 85.7 | 86.4 | 89.7 | 92.6 | 94.7 | 96.2 | 96.8 | 95.8 | 94.2 | 92.2 | 92.6 | 93.9 | | 2001 | 90.2 | 90.5 | 89.4 | 94.9 | 96.4 | 95.6 | 93.9 | 93.3 | 92.2 | 92.0 | 92.2 | 90.2 | | 2002 | 87.7 | 86.6 | 87.9 | 93.0 | 91.5 | 93.1 | 93.5 | 92.9 | 90.4 | 87.5 | 92.6 | 91.1 | | 2003 | 87.2 | 87.4 | 90.5 | 94.1 | 95.8 | 94.7 | 94.0 | 95.0 | 93.1 | 92.4 | 93.6 | 93.0 | | 2004 | 89.1 | 88.8 | 88.5 | 92.5 | 95.6 | 97.5 | 96.8 | 97.1 | 90.1 | 90.2 | 94.4 | 95.0 | | | 2005 | 91.3 | 90.6 | 90.8 | 92.8 | 94.2 | 97.1 | 94.2 | 92.7 | 83.6 | 81.3 | 89.3 | 89.4 | | 2006 | 87.0 | 86.5 | 85.8 | 88.0 | 91.2 | 93.0 | 92.5 | 93.2 | 93.0 | 87.9 | 88.0 | 90.6 | | 2007 | 88.1 | 84.7 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 89.7 | 88.5 | 91.2 | 90.8 | 88.9 | 87.4 | 88.9 | 88.7 | | 2008 | 85.8 | 85.0 | 83.2 | | | | | | | |
GUN CONTROL; USING BOTH HANDS Robins 60th birthday celebration (2005), the guy's still got it! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0d1HilfLxA Calling an illegal alien an 'undocumented immigrant'
is like calling a drug dealer an 'unlicensed pharmacist '.
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Sailfish
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kingfish501 (5/29/2008)
Shakedown, you are proof of how far down our society has fallen. It has ALWAYS been bad taste to say about his mother some of the things you said.That you find it acceptable says worlds about you.
What are you talking about? The guy said his mom was dead and in hell because she was a democrat, right? Shakedown made a stupid comment about say hi to her, but he didn't say anything disrespectful, but it was in awful taste if she's truly dead. Bad timing perhaps, but there's no reason for you to say what you said unless I missed something.
What did he say about the guys mom?
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Sailfish
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Thanks, boat job. Now take a look at that chart and tell me what you think about that article you posted.
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Grouper
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| I have read articles on this almost daily and just found that chart....... I believe the chart to be accurate. Those numbers actually bring a whole new prospective to the issue and conversation.......... What I need to find next is the numbers and percentages on the US consumption versus the US production....... Then we could factor in a holt to any imports versus self sufficiency....... I still see a huge problem for this country if s&*# ever really hit the fan which brings us back to the original information and post until an attempt was made to derail it..........
GUN CONTROL; USING BOTH HANDS Robins 60th birthday celebration (2005), the guy's still got it! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0d1HilfLxA Calling an illegal alien an 'undocumented immigrant'
is like calling a drug dealer an 'unlicensed pharmacist '.
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Sailfish
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Boatjob1 (5/29/2008)
I have readarticles on this almost daily and just found that chart....... I believe the chart to be accurate. Those numbers actually bring a whole new prospective to the issue andconversation..........
What I need to find next is the numbers and percentages on the US consumption versus the US production....... Then we could factor in a holt to any imports versus self sufficiency....... I still see a huge problem for this country if s&*# ever really hit the fan which brings us back to the original information and post until an attempt was made to derail it..........
You will not hear any objection from me about the need to become energy self sufficient. I agree we should drill in the gulf and elsewhere and the technology is here to do it with minimal risk. As we all know, there are oil rigs 30 miles from Pensacola Beach and I can't remember a drop of oil on the beach even after Katrina and Ivan directly smashed many rigs.
We need solar power to be incentivised by the tax code and perhaps included as required by the building codes. We need mandated increases in CAFE standards and we need to continue to invest in all manner of reasonable alternatives to imported fuel. We also need to do it rationally and logically. Frankly, we and our f'd up politicians should have fixed this after the crisis of the 70s. Instead, and here I'll blame Republicans again, Reagan overturned the solar tax incentives and stopped the governmentally subsidized search for alternatives. We tucked our heads in the sand while the oil companies merged and merged and deregulated and eked out a living at $12 per barrel.
Funny, that the oil companies made the same margin at 12 40 60 and now 130 per barrel though, isn't it? I wonder how.
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Trigger
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And we're dancing all around the real reason oil and gas have gone up crazy amounts in the past couple of years. Primarily, the increase in gasoline is related to the decrease in the value of the US Dollar. Blame who you want, but decreased demand for dollars worldwide has happened as we've run up our federal debt and beebopped from bubble to bubble with tech stocks to housing. Bush and the Republican liberals have untaxed and spent us into the poor house relative to where we were a few years ago. For whatever reason, we have attempted to supply side ourselves into prosperity. The all out fear of the word recession prompted Bush to infamously suggest that we go shopping to help end the 9/11 fears. We've spent a trillion or so in Iraq having been told Iraqi oil would pay for everything and that, my friend, has been a huge drain on our economy and our currency. Close, but no cigar. The DX is only somewhat-related to the price of oil. Oil has become a new "safe haven" to park money in, and is where most of the $250 billion in "excess liquidity" that The Fed has thrown at the markets since August has gone. It is not an accident that oil has roughly doubled in price since August. The dollar has not decreased in value by 50% - but the amount of slosh, or free cash in the banking system injected by The Fed to hide insolvent banks, has quadrupled to $250 billion during that same time. http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/05/temblor-thursday-challenge-to-richard.html
Investing? http://tickerforum.org and http://market-ticker.org
Diving? http://scubaforum.org
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Sailfish
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Genesis (5/30/2008)
[quote]
Oil has become a new "safe haven" to park money in, and is where most of the $250 billion in "excess liquidity" that The Fed has thrown at the markets since August has gone.
It is not an accident that oil has roughly doubled in price since August. The dollar has not decreased in value by 50% - but the amount of slosh, or free cash in the banking system injected by The Fed to hide insolvent banks, has quadrupled to $250 billion during that same time.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/05/temblor-thursday-challenge-to-richard.html
I didn't realize that and if I'm understanding you correctly, you're saying that the money the fed has pumped/printed to subsidize criminal lenders and idiot buyers has been parked in speculative oil futures. Is that correct? Excess cash chasing the hot speculative vehicle would surely explain a lot.
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Sailfish
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Xanadu (5/30/2008)
[quote]Boatjob1 (5/29/2008)
We need solar power to be incentivised by the tax code and perhaps included as required by the building codes.
imagine every rooftop covered with them in SUNNY Florida....
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Sailfish
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hebegb (5/30/2008)
Xanadu (5/30/2008)
[quote]Boatjob1 (5/29/2008)
We need solar power to be incentivised by the tax code and perhaps included as required by the building codes.
imagine every rooftop covered with them in SUNNY Florida....
Over the past 6 months, I have spent around 15k in engineering plans to design and permit a small commercial building of 1500 sq ft. Percolation tests, boring, storm water modeling, topo surveys, tree mitigation plans................ All of this to build a small building in the city. I've had to have energy audits despite the fact it was designed by an architect to tell us how much ac to install. Though the building has 3 doors in 1500 sq ft, we've got to put spinklers in it. Its intended to be a youth rec center for a local church, but handicap access for baths and numerous other safety items are included.
With all this required, why don't the mandate that we invest $1200 for a small solar system and take the waste of hot water off this building forever?
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Sailfish
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friggin red tape and bureaucratic BS is outta control
BTW...the pics of the 1st boat you sent....REALLY liked that look!
so...when you wanna do this?
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Sailfish
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This afternoon? Call me 529-8999. I should be done depleting my check book for the week by about 1 and I think Jeff is down there now working on miscellaneous BS. (boat stuff)
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Snapper
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| If you start with a solar water heater or/and geothermal system you will probably find that you cut your overall energy consuption by 50 to 70%. At that point you can start looking at photovoltaics because your "electricity" requirement is WAAAAY down. Keeping in mind that Florida will pay you up to 20K in incentives on a 5K PV system. For an average house of say 1800sf you could probably do all of the above for somewhere in the neighborhood of 50K. Now, what that will do it not bring you to a $0 electric bill....It will actually put you in a spot where the power company will be writing you a check every month. But, don't go cashing that check just yet as even then it would probably still take some 20 years before you are in the black on the deal. But, once you are in the black you are in it forever. Oh, and if at some point you manage to get an electric car you can now count your cars fuel bill in on your savings. These numbers may not work for everyone but I did the math on all of my power bills and gas bills and figured out I would be payed off in 18 years.
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Sailfish
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WW2 (5/30/2008)
If you start with a solar water heater or/and geothermal system you will probably find that you cut your overall energy consuption by 50 to 70%. At that point you can start looking at photovoltaics because your "electricity" requirement is WAAAAY down. Keeping in mind that Florida will pay you up to 20K in incentives on a 5K PV system. For an average house of say 1800sf you could probably do all of the above for somewhere in the neighborhood of 50K. Now, what that will do it not bring you to a $0 electric bill....It will actually put you in a spot where the power company will be writing you a check every month.But, don't go cashing that check just yet as even then it would probably still take some 20 years before you are in the black on the deal. But, once you are in the black you are in it forever. Oh, and if at some point you manage to get an electric car you can now count your cars fuel bill in on your savings.
These numbers may not work for everyone but I did the math on all of my power bills and gas bills and figured out I would be payed off in 18 years.
You're pretty nearly correct. In fact, we're currently building a house in Gulf Breeze using SIPS panels which are extraordinarily well insulated. High end windows, doors, appliances and fixtures will be combined with a PV system, passive hot water and geo-thermal to produce what is anticipated as a HERS rating of around 60. To put that into perspective, the typical house is 1500 and is a basis for anticipating utility costs. Based on the 60, this 3800 sq ft house should have annual utility costs around $600! The cost to provide such efficiency is pretty high, but its getting better all the time. I suspect we're around $50k more expensive on the front side to do this, but in my 3000 sq ft East Hill house, I average $3600 per year in electricity and $2400 in gas so I would be saving $5400 per year against the $50k and the tax incentives mentioned above are for real. I guess its about $25k the owner stands to reap from the investment.
If anyone would like additional info, drop me a pm and I'll send you some links.
FYI, adding a $2500 passive solar hot water heater could save you $6-800 per year and tax incentives are available too.
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Trigger
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Xanadu (5/30/2008)
Genesis (5/30/2008)
[quote] Oil has become a new "safe haven" to park money in, and is where most of the $250 billion in "excess liquidity" that The Fed has thrown at the markets since August has gone. It is not an accident that oil has roughly doubled in price since August. The dollar has not decreased in value by 50% - but the amount of slosh, or free cash in the banking system injected by The Fed to hide insolvent banks, has quadrupled to $250 billion during that same time. http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/05/temblor-thursday-challenge-to-richard.html I didn't realize that and if I'm understanding you correctly, you're saying that the money the fed has pumped/printed to subsidize criminal lenders and idiot buyers has been parked in speculative oil futures. Is that correct? Excess cash chasing the hot speculative vehicle would surely explain a lot. Speculative oil futures? Uh, not quite. The more exact way of looking at it is that The Fed has taken about $400 billion worth of trash paper, for which we are not allowed to know the valuation models (but its not the traditional Treasuries - its CDOs and other dodgy "assets") onto its balance sheet through its alphabet soup facilities (the TAF, TSLF, etc). As a consequence Treasuries have become "contaminated" - they are no longer considered "absolutely safe." At the same time, in an attempt to prevent the banks from recognizing their losses (a number of large IBs and Commercial Banks are almost certainly in fact insolvent right here and now - if you take reasonable assumptions based on known facts with regards to the ALT-A performance from securitized paper, and remove the CDS "wraps" which we know the monolines can't pay out on, for example, a number of these firms have negative equity and negative net worth) The Fed has thrown a record amount of "slosh" into the banking system in an attempt to prevent interest rates from reflecting actual default risk. The Fed does not set interest rates; it sets a target and then must defend it by either adding or removing liquidity. They have thrown an unprecedented amount of liquidity into the system in an attempt to drive down the short end of the curve so the banks can "borrow short and lend long", and hopefully make enough to work their way out of the hole. Unfortunately all that excess liquidity has to go SOMEWHERE. Well, it can't go into Treasuries, because they're not safe. It can't go into equities, because they're even LESS safe (how much is a share of stock worth if the lending system implodes?) And its not being lent out in ordinary loans either; most of the lending going on right now is in fact forced lending (loan commitments made a year or more ago that were undrawn and now businesses and individuals are drawing down those lines, correctly surmising that credit is tightening and they may not have access a month or a year hence) So where can that liquidity go that's "reasonably safe"? Well, a barrel of oil will always and forever make about 22 gallons of gasoline, 10 more of diesel, and a cornucopia of other products for the rest. It will do so now, it did so 100 years ago, and will do so 100 years hence. It has utility value, is fungible, and the utility value will never change. Now think - what's the definition of "money"? Oh oh. See, oil is one of the few things left that hasn't - and can't be - debased. There is extreme danger lurking in what is going on in the commodity markets and with The Fed right now. Attempts to stop it by "reining in those eeeeviiilllleeee speculators" are unlikely to produce the desired results - they are very likely, instead, to produce a whole host of side effects, none of which will be good. The correct action is to remove the excess liquidity to stop the abuses. This will force recognition of the losses, however, which Bernanke is trying like hell to avoid. The danger here is that problems that are swept under the rug never get smaller, and this gambit relies on the idea that housing will turn this year or at worst early next, and both prices and demand will stabilize. Historically speaking there is not a snowball's chance in hell that bet will pay. In fact, in inflation-adjusted terms we've now seen housing price declines that are worse than those during the worst of The Depression - and there is absolutely nothing in the statistics that indicate that we're at or near a bottom. If it doesn't at best we get a Japan-like experience where our economy goes "no growth" and we zombify the banking system for a decade. We could also get a mild "crack-up boom" like we had in the 1970s. Or we could get a price inflation explosion followed by an all-on deflationary credit collapse - an outcome which is looking increasingly likely. That would be a disaster that would rival the 1930s and might surpass it. If we get the latter and you're reliant on credit you will go bankrupt as those facilities will literally disappear. There are signs that the latter may be starting. Specifically, the Treasury Auctions of late have shown increasing reluctance by foreign central banks to recycle dollars (including petrodollars) into our Treasuries. We need $2 billion a day in foreign reinvestment to keep our current government addiction to cheap credit afloat, and if it disappears the bottom will fall out of the bond and stock markets all at once, followed rapidly by the economy and then commodities. If you want the whole shebang, here it is, from Thursday. http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/05/temblor-thursday-challenge-to-richard.html Oh, WW2, those panels have a design life of 20 years. If you're paid off in 18 with tax breaks you're actually losing; calculate it again using the NPV of the money and you won't like the outcome. PV makes no economic sense at all. However, passive insulation makes tons of sense, and solar hot water can, in some cases, as hot water is a HUGE energy consumer in the average home. However, before installing solar hot water look at the cost of an on-demand system - they produce ~50% or more savings as the energy consumption when no hot water is being used is zero (an enormous percentage of the energy used to heat water is in fact wasted through radiation out from the tank; an "on demand" system reduces this loss to zero, of course.)
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Trigger
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| Very good post, send to the news journal and lets see if the will print it. Or the independant news. Lets see if we can get this information out to those who don't see the forum. Good job.
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Trigger
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| Genesis Wrote... "Oh, WW2, those panels have a design life of 20 years. If you're paid off in 18 with tax breaks you're actually losing; calculate it again using the NPV of the money and you won't like the outcome." The panels have a warranty for 20 years, there is no design life engineered into them. The 20 years is a power output rating. Most will last past the 30 year mark with performance. I'm not sure of too many companies that will warrenty their product for 20 years. The payback with incentives here in Florida is around 8-10 years at today's electric prices on a home and less time than that for commercial installations with Fed tax breaks. You might streach the payback out in time if you added battery back-up to the mix. Then you would not need a generator so that cost would be an offset. If you try to factor in inflation of electrical rates for the next 15 years I'm sure the payback will be less time. Have you seen the spot price for coal and natural gas? Coal has doubled in price Y on Y. Study the fuel charges on your coming electrical bills. The real solar fast payback comes from Solar Hot water IMO. Its about 30% of the energy use in a home... around 3-5 years.
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Trigger
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| Solar hot water has a good payback but instant hot water works when its cloudy, removes the tank and its costs from the system, and cuts the hot water heating expense by 50% immediately and permanently. The newer modular systems are also cheaper to install and maintain than a hybrid solar+conventional system. PV also has a small problem with severe wind loads and debris damage. We don't get those kind of conditions around here, do we?
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Trigger
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| Again...even if you could knock down the use by 50% versus conventional systems (outside of the lab numbers indicate less savings), you still are using electricity or gas to heat the water 100% of the time with on-demand systems and are tied to the market rate. In response to your wind statement...All Solar panels (Electric and Solar Hot water) are rated, Engineered and installed for the wind codes for debris and wind zones where they are installed here in Florida if professionally installed. Everything built in this area has those wind problems......
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