The two best times to fish is when it's rainin' and when it ain't.

Just keep a watchfull eye on all sources of info.  If you live on the water you better always prepare yourself every June 1st of every year.  Just as everyone else should do the same.  That will eliminate the need to run out and run around trying to get prepared along with all the other last minute idiots.  We will know more in about 24-48 hours with this one.  The models BAMS, BAMD, BAMM that put it over our area directly are purely statistical/historical models.  Meaning they mostly do not use current data as input.  They are a tool for use, but have far less weight versus the other models.

This is what the NHC has to say about the numerical models:

NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Jon

Not sure if you are joking here or not.  But if you aren't, this storm presents one of the major problems iwth hurricanes.  Right now, there's no certainity where its going.  however, there is some certainity it will hit Wednesday, probabaly afternoon evening time frame.

That means you have to decide now what you are going to do and act on it.  If you wait till later Monday, or Tuesday, until they get a good handle on where its going, you'll be SOL.

Take care, P'cola!!!! 

2007 TROPHY Pro

2152 walkaround 190 merc i/o

NIGHTWOLF

If it goes inland in SW Florida and remains over land then it will be a nuisance and heavy rain risk (good for GA; they can use it) anyway.

I'd say the risk of it coming up here has come down materially; I wouldn't call that risk "gone" at this point, but I do believe it has narrowed.  The uncertainty right now is that forward motion is essentially nil in the last few hours and it appears to be trying to reform a center a bit NW of previous fixes.  Since we can't get aircraft into Cuban airspace, we have to wait until tomorrow to be sure - but this is what it looks like on the IR and WV loops.

NoGaps continues to insist that this storm will come into the gulf and have a westward component to its motion.  I see how its arriving at that conclusion but I'm losing confidence in the synoptic evolution that gets there.  There's also a fair bit of shear showing up on the west side of the storm, although I wouldn't be on that holding up past tomorrow morning.

The WV loop is very cool - and complex - right now.  By tomorrow morning we should have a decent handle on this thing, but the bad news is that we also likely are only 24 hours away from a mainland landfall at that point too, unless it is indeed coming west (in which case we've got another ~12-24 hours, depending on exactly how far west)

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

Investing?  http://tickerforum.org and http://market-ticker.org
Diving?  http://scubaforum.org

>))))))*>      >)))))))))))*>       >))))))))))*>         >))))*>       >))))*>        >))))))))*>     >)))*>                

~12' Hobie Outback Yak - Eagle 245DS FF ~ Wicked Pam Flint... Blackwater  Pirates - www.blackwaterliving.com       ~PRFA Member~                                                           

actually, I was kind of hoping this one would hit us.  It had an outside chance of being a Cat3, week one it did.  I would rather take an earlier smaller storm than a later monster. 

That of course is defying all rules of probablity and saying tracks are not mutal exclusive and we only get hit by one storm a year. 

Are you nuts??? You want a hurricane? I don't want one... PERIOD!! I have 14 windows to board up and I'm NOT looking forward to doing that at all.

_______________________________________________________________________

>))))))*>      >)))))))))))*>       >))))))))))*>         >))))*>       >))))*>        >))))))))*>     >)))*>                

~12' Hobie Outback Yak - Eagle 245DS FF ~ Wicked Pam Flint... Blackwater  Pirates - www.blackwaterliving.com       ~PRFA Member~                                                           

weren't you asking about how to board up windows last year?  what did you finally decide on?

Now... the prev owner of this house... made up these painted plywood window covers that you put up and then screw them into the brick. I have no idea what size screws they take as they didn't leave any... just all the board pieces. When I was looking around the outside of the house prior to buying it, I saw every window has those blue plastic screw holders inserted on the sides of each window into the brick and figured that what it was for. I have no idea of their numbering system either... so it's going to take a little while to figure it all out and then install them. I guess I could try to pull out one of those blue plastic things and see what size screw will fit them.

One day, I'll like to get those fabric sheets put up. It sure would be less hassle and I'd need less muscle to put them up.

_______________________________________________________________________

>))))))*>      >)))))))))))*>       >))))))))))*>         >))))*>       >))))*>        >))))))))*>     >)))*>                

~12' Hobie Outback Yak - Eagle 245DS FF ~ Wicked Pam Flint... Blackwater  Pirates - www.blackwaterliving.com       ~PRFA Member~                                                           

You would always have that stud sticking out though.  Thats what i"ve done on my house.  I have vynal siding with the fake shutters by the windows.  The threaded studs sticking out really isn't noticable.

Thanks!!! That will DEFINATELY help!! Yeah... I'm going to need SOME TIME to figure out which board goes to where... I did clear off that table that these are piled high on and picked up a small one (have 4 small windows) and it has either a E or 3 on it... oh geeeez...  It's going to take all day to figure them out.. and when I do, I'm going to mark the window and board. Maybe what I should do is try to figure out which window it will fit... then just lean it against the house underneath that window... laffs... until the season is over with.

_______________________________________________________________________

>))))))*>      >)))))))))))*>       >))))))))))*>         >))))*>       >))))*>        >))))))))*>     >)))*>                

~12' Hobie Outback Yak - Eagle 245DS FF ~ Wicked Pam Flint... Blackwater  Pirates - www.blackwaterliving.com       ~PRFA Member~                                                           

Hmmm.. that is another option.  I've seen where some people just cram a 2x4 in the window. That seems the easiest and quickest way.. unless you use just sheets and hurricane clips.

Each board section contains 3 pieces. The large center piece that covers the entire window and then... two smaller sections on the sides (that might stick out 3" maybe) that are to be screwed into the brick/blue anchors. It was a pretty good idea.. I thought. Plus I noticed the prev owner drilled small holes in a couple of them so you can see out a little bit. At least those will tell me which way to put them in. :- )  I know it must of taken a WHILE to make these and do all the drilling.  

_______________________________________________________________________

>))))))*>      >)))))))))))*>       >))))))))))*>         >))))*>       >))))*>        >))))))))*>     >)))*>                

~12' Hobie Outback Yak - Eagle 245DS FF ~ Wicked Pam Flint... Blackwater  Pirates - www.blackwaterliving.com       ~PRFA Member~