From Weather Underground:

South Carolina? New Orleans? Where will Fay go next?
The computer models continue to show an unusual amount of disagreement about the longer term path of Fay. The official NHC forecast follows the GFDL and HWRF models, which takes Fay northwards through the Florida Peninsula. However, the latest runs of these models now predict Fay will emerge off the east coast of Florida, restrengthen a bit to a 60-70 mph tropical storm, then make landfall Wednesday along the Georgia/South Carolina coast. This solution assumes that the trough of low pressure turning Fay northward will be strong and enough and be moving slow enough to pull Fay all the way northwards into the U.S.

A weaker trough is predicted by the rest of the models, which foresee that Fay will stall over central Florida or the adjacent Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. A ridge of high pressure will then build in, forcing Fay westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. A second landfall in the Florida Panhandle or in Louisiana near New Orleans is then a possibility. Since more and more of the models are trending this way, I believe this solution has an equal chance of being correct. "The Joker" may be around to trouble us for another full week or longer.


I LOVE MY WIFE

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Crown Weather Services

Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Tuesday, August 19, 2008 610 am EDT

Fay: Fay is now making landfall early this morning near Cape Romano, Florida as a 60 mph tropical storm. Fay didn't make hurricane strength and the storm is now expected to slowly weaken as it tracks across the Florida Peninsula today into tonight. The center is expected to emerge into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach on Wednesday morning. Once this happens, Fay will find itself in a more favorable environment and some restrengthening is possible off of the northeast coast of Florida later Wednesday into Thursday.

Fay is currently tracking north-northeast at a forward speed of 9 mph. A model consensus is now building with the idea of Fay being trapped underneath a high pressure system with even the GFDL model now backing off on a prolonged northward motion and a track back into the Savannah area of Georgia late Thursday night. The overall track model guidance is in a little better agreement on this scenario, however, they still have some large differences in the overall track with a consensus of the models pulling the storm out into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach and then recurving the storm back inland near Jacksonville on Thursday afternoon.

Ok, first the easy part of the forecast: Fay will track across Florida today into tonight and then emerge off of the northeast coast of Florida near Daytona Beach sometime Wednesday morning. After this, the forecast for Fay becomes very difficult with the GFS model forecasting two more landfalls, one over northeast Florida on Friday morning and a second on the Alabama coast on Sunday night. The European model is forecasting a sharp turn to the west with an eventual landfall on the Mississippi coast on Sunday. The 4 km SPC WRF/NMM model is very interesting. This model forecasts that Fay will exit into the Atlantic near Vero Beach late this afternoon and forecasts Fay to track slowly east-northeast tonight and be located about 75 to 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral first thing Wednesday morning.

At this point, I like the overall forecast from the National Hurricane Center, however, Fay will really need to be watched closely once it tracks into the Atlantic on Wednesday morning and right now I am considering all possible scenarios, including the 4 km SPC WRF/NMM model scenario, quite viable as the overall synoptic pattern will be changing very quickly over the next several days and things will be quite fluid. So, stay tuned!

For detailed local information on Fay, please refer to our Tropical Storm Fay Page.

Elsewhere in the tropics: I am also watching an area of low pressure now located about 825 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery early this morning indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated, however, the latest wind shear forecast indicates that wind shear values will increase to 20 to 30 knots by tomorrow and continue through this weekend. Therefore, I am not expecting development from this tropical disturbance anytime soon. This forecast shear appears to be from an upper-level low pressure system now located to the north-northwest of this system. This upper level low is forecast to drop southwestward and cause this strong shear. If this disturbance can hold together past 60 West Longitude, which it should cross this line sometime this weekend, then environmental conditions may improve some and this system may need to be watched closely by next week, if it survives the shear.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Wednesday morning. If there should be any significant changes with Fay during the day today, then I will issue a discussion sometime this evening.

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jim.owens@morgankeegan.com

(M)205-907-8042

he started the comment a while back, just after he saw the movie Dark Knight.  Basically, he calls it the joker because it keeps hinting at doing different things, doesn't do what its suppose to do and keeps causing surprises.

here's his original post about it (August 13):

The forecast for 92L
Watching the the model forecasts for 92L over the past three days has, for me, been akin to watching the latest Batman movie, The Dark Knight. As the Joker prepares for one of his deadly pranks, the music rises in pitch and volume, and the audience nervously waits to see what terrible mayhem the Joker has planned next. Like music in the movie, the reliable GFDL model forecasts of 92L the past three days have risen in pitch and volume. The GFLD has been forecasting successively stronger hurricanes each day, culminating in yesterday afternoon's run predicting a Category 3 hurricane plowing through the Bahama Islands towards Florida this weekend. Well, our Batman--dry air--has come to the rescue this time, significantly disrupting 92L. However, it remains to be seen if the Joker--92L--has one more trick up its sleeve. The GFDL model is still calling for 92L to develop into a borderline Category 1 hurricane by early next week, as is the latest run of the SHIPS intensity model. The other models are less gung-ho, and most of the models foresee that 92L will come close enough to the high mountains of the Dominican Republic to cause the storm trouble.

Thank you for the info.  That explains the term.  I did not see that post by Dr. Masters.  Again, thanks for your time.

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Oh fun... rain... rain... and more rain.. no fishing for me this weekend.

Then again... I should count my blessings... at least it's NOT a hurricane.

http://ralphstropicalweather.homestead.com/RalphTropicalWeatherOut.html 

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Crown Weather Services

Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Thursday, August 21, 2008 640 am EDT

The next two weeks should be very interesting and potentially dangerous in the tropical Atlantic as we deal with Fay for potentially another several days and the potential for more tropical entities to impact the Caribbean Islands and/or the United States coastline. So, let's take a look at things:

Reconnaissance reports indicate that Fay did not strengthen overnight and the storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The central pressures have been holding around 993 or 994 millibars overnight into early this morning. Fay is currently stationary about 20 miles east-southeast of Daytona Beach. A ridge of high pressure to the north of Fay, which is responsible for the storm's current stall, is forecast by the global models to strengthen and build westward as a trough of low pressure over the southern Plains lifts out over the next two to three days. This pattern is expected to cause Fay to track west to west-northwest over the next few days.

My forecast for Fay for today into tonight will be based closely on the 4 km WRF-NMM model, which performed very well yesterday in depicting Fay's track offshore and its subsequent stall last night. Therefore, I expect Fay to crawl onshore this morning and into early this afternoon. In fact, it is very possible that the entire center of Fay may not come ashore until late this afternoon. Fay will hold its strength today and may actually strengthen a little more to just below hurricane strength before landfall this afternoon. This very slow motion will cause heavy rainfall with additional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, strong winds with gusts to up to 60 mph and isolated tornadoes throughout today across east-central and northeast Florida.

For tonight, Fay is forecast to slowly across northern Florida, basically on a track westward from Daytona and Flagler Beaches late this afternoon and early this evening to Levy County by late tonight or early Friday morning. Therefore, heavy rainfall with additional rainfall amounts of up to 4 to 8 inches, windy conditions with wind gusts of up to 50 to 60 mph and isolated tornadoes can be expected over northern Florida, basically north of a line from Titusville to Orlando to Brooksville.

After tonight, the track of Fay becomes more uncertain as some of the model guidance forecasts a track across the northeast and northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend with the GFS model forecasting another landfall over the Alabama coastline or extreme western Florida Panhandle on Tuesday night. The European model is forecasting a track into the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend with this model forecasting another landfall on the Mississippi and southeast Louisiana coastline on Monday evening.

Based on the overall synoptic pattern, I think Fay will emerge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the day on Friday and then track west or west-northwest across the northern Gulf of Mexico about 60 to 90 miles offshore. So far it seems that the European model has done the best overall with the track of Fay, therefore, I am putting some credence in its forecast. So, ultimately, Fay may make another landfall on the Alabama or Mississippi coastline on Sunday night or early Monday.

As for potential intensification if Fay tracks across the northern Gulf of Mexico: The upper-level environment is expected to remain favorable for redevelopment over the northern Gulf of Mexico and it is possible for Fay to intensify to at least a moderate to strong tropical storm and possibly a hurricane if Fay tracks across the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. So, folks over the northern Gulf Coast should keep close tabs on the track of Fay over the next few days.

For detailed local information on Fay, please refer to our Tropical Storm Fay Page.

If that isn't enough, I am also monitoring increasing activity in the central and eastern Atlantic. In particular I am watching two tropical disturbances, one located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands and the other located to the east-southeast of disturbance number one's location. These two disturbances can be seen on satellite imagery, just look on the east side of the image. My analysis of environmental conditions shows that wind shear values are running at up to 30 knots over both disturbances and this alone will inhibit any significant development over the next couple of days. The enviornmental forecast over both systems indicate that conditions may become quite favorable for development by late this weekend and especially early next week. Both disturbances will be monitored very closely, especially with the fact that the European model is forecasting disturbance #1 (Labeled Invest 94-L) to develop and intensify after it moves through the Lesser Antilles this weekend. The European model is then forecasting an intensifying and growing storm to track across the northern Caribbean next week and in fact the 10 day European model forecast is showing a very large and potentially intense storm located over the northwestern Caribbean. It should be noted that the European model has been forecasting this scenario for the past couple of days. Looking at the other guidance, the 10 day Canadian model forecast is forecasting a very similar scenario to the European model. The GFS model is not aggressive at all with either disturbance and doesn't forecast development of a tropical cyclone until late next week.

So, based on all of this, I do not expect tropical cyclone development from either system for the next day or two, then as conditions become more favorable late this weekend into early next week, either or both systems could form and the scenario being depicted by the European and Canadian models will need to be watched for very closely. I will monitor both systems and keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT Friday morning.

Click For Tropical Weather Information

Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.

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jim.owens@morgankeegan.com

(M)205-907-8042

Man, there just HAS to be some positive news to contribute to this storm movement other than the negative disastrous terms that all the weather guys like to throw around! Last night on the Weather Channel,  since Fay had absolutely nothing disastrous to contribute, the guys dug up old film footage of early hurricanes which were throwing the reporters around and sliding debris past them at dragster speed!! I mean, c'mon, we have seen this footage so many times already but I guess there is nothing valuable in positive reporting nowadays.

 

YET...

You can run, but you'll only die tired!

 Mark

 Pensacola,FL

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Jon

Scott

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Actually it does.  Upper level winds are not favorable for intensification over water.  It would take a good long stretch over water (24-36 hours) for Fay to strengthen more.  It will also be close to land which will inhibit growth as well.  It has such a broad circulation that it will take some time over open water to tighten that circulation and intensify more.

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Jon

That would require a good 24hrs over water... so if it tracks on their course, no.

If it goes south of there, however.....

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Jon