GDFL model and Fay, ???????
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GDFL model and Fay, ??????? Expand / Collapse
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Posted 8/19/2008 1:50:04 PM


Grouper

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Same time model runs

 

Fay

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081912-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

 

94L (watch Fay)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008081912-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

 

 

Post #165215
Posted 8/19/2008 9:03:05 PM


Trigger

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You like that huh?

Heh heh... tricky little bastard isn't it?

Its pretty on the East Coast radars.... check it out...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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Post #165591
Posted 8/19/2008 9:17:49 PM


White Marlin

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One of a few storms that actually dropped in pressure, formed an eye, and did all that while on land.  It's a crazy system. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

"H2O:  2 parts hydrogen 1 part obsession."

The user formerly known as Knot a Yacht 

 

 

Jon


 

Post #165620
Posted 8/20/2008 12:01:30 AM


Trigger

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What's even crazier is the 00Z GFS run.

It takes the storm into the Atlantic, back over the state off Tarpon Springs, rakes Appalachicola through over to the mouth of the Miss, stalls it there AGAIN, then brings it back east and landfalls it for the final time roughly in my back yard!

Needless to say I hope that forecast DOES NOT verify.

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Post #165827
Posted 8/20/2008 5:25:44 PM
Pin Fish

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Here's a full US radar loop.
Always goo to check before heading out.
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
Post #166345
Posted 8/20/2008 5:42:17 PM


Snapper

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That sir, is a large map. I did find the regional view...

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Post #166361
Posted 8/20/2008 6:03:57 PM


Trigger

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OK, you're gonna loooove this.

So Fay goes off the Atlantic coast this morning.

Now it appears to be coming back.  Due west.

The exact direction is difficult to determine from the radar loop, but in a few hours - and definitely by tomorrow - I'll know.

IF it comes straight west it comes back out into the gulf around Tarpon Springs.  It won't be nasty at that point - probably a Depression - but then its over the Gulf and the bad news is that the shear is essentially zero with the water bathtub warm.

Not so good.

Then we get to play "ridge .vs. trough" again, but this time with the storm in the back 40 and headed west.

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Post #166376
Posted 8/20/2008 6:17:13 PM


Snapper

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I'm looking at the radar right now, along with a few different types... The barometric pressure is dropping and it looks like its picking up some convection and it looks like storms are starting to wrap around the center of circulation, which is NOT good... The longer it keeps creeping north, the better.. But don't think for one second we are in the clear as Genesis said. This things way too unpredictable thus far

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