# More thoughts about the rut



## Bone Yard (Feb 2, 2009)

The chatter about my "Thoughts on the Local Rut" has been great. To see my followup comments go to http://rvtaxidermy.wordpress.com/2011/12/17/more-thoughts-on-the-local-rut/#more-518


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## Reelfun27 (Oct 4, 2007)

Excellent Boneyard!!!!

http://bowsite.com/BOWSITE/features/articles/moontheory/

In one example, Osborn established, October 27th - that is 6.5 days before the hunter’s moon or the second full moon after the fall equinox (generally in September) as the average breeding date for 1,053 does collected over a 13-year period on the coastal plain of South Carolina. From year to year, the 13-year average breeding date deviated only an average of 4.6 days from October 27. However, timing of the Hunter’s Moon varies from year to year, and when conception dates for individual years were compared to the Hunter’s Moon, the deviation was about 11.4 days. 

To put it another way, average timing of conception for individual years years deviated from October 27 by only 4.6 days, but it deviated from the Hunter’s Mooon by as much as 11.4 days. Although that’s only one example, Osborn found that calendar date, not moon phase, was more reliable in predicting breeding dates in 21 of 22 data sets from different states or physiographic regions. When asked about the one exception, Osborn speculated that it was an unrealistic artifact of a small sample size.

http://www.almanac.com/moon/full/zipcode/32577


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## ABailey (May 25, 2010)

Good read Ron, thanks.


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## helo_hunter (Oct 2, 2007)

Thanks Ron. Great research.


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## saltgrass (Sep 1, 2008)

Thanks Ron, some good info ther. Maybe I can make it work out.


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## JoeZ (Sep 30, 2007)

Great read.


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## Robbr (May 19, 2010)

That's good information. I'm definitely going to be spending quite a bit of time in the woods that week. Nicely researched and well thought out.


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## jcoss15 (Oct 11, 2010)

These dates are about spot on for our local rut action... the last week in Jan. and first week in Feb. are your best shot for a good buck. Bout the only time they will let their guard down.


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## GatorBait (May 14, 2008)

I can vouche for this. My good buddies have hunted quite a bit of land just a hair east of Crestview for the last three years. In those three years 8 of the 9 large rack bucks (8 & 10 points) have been harvested off of the property between January 20th-30th. They have learned during these years not to waste their time in the woods during the month of December getting burned out to hold out and put their time and dedication in during this specific week and a half.


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## 69Viking (Oct 30, 2008)

Great information, thanks for posting!


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## ABailey (May 25, 2010)

Time off put in for, now let's hope the weather works out...was it hot today or just me? Thanks again Ron


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## Gator65 (Nov 11, 2011)

*The Farmer's Almanac says:*

*January 2012*
*12th-15th.* Rain, thunderstorms clear away to the east, then fair and mild.
*16th-19th.* Clearing and milder.
*20th-23rd.* A few showers.
*24th-27th.* Storminess moves in, then fair and cooler conditions.
*28th-31st.* Showers from the Gulf Coast north.
*February 2012*
*1st-3rd.* Few showers, then fair.
*4th-7th.* Mild days, cool nights.


The Weather Guesser long range forecast says:

Ave high for the period: 60 - 63 deg
Ave low for the period: 40 - 42 deg

Those cooler mornings seem to be the only hope. We'll see.


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## Miami Matt (Jun 20, 2009)

Great read Ron, added ya to my favorites!


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## Gator65 (Nov 11, 2011)

Reelfun27 said:


> Excellent Boneyard!!!!
> 
> http://bowsite.com/BOWSITE/features/articles/moontheory/
> 
> ...


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## TheCarver (May 5, 2011)

I have to admit there are some true to the hunt in this forum. Not being foolish or meaning anything but good to anyone. I bet Ron has his Buck picked out to the beam size an spread, nothing more or less will fit his call when it comes to the shot he takes. Thanks for the info partner, ole Carver


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## byrddog (Aug 3, 2009)

TheCarver said:


> I have to admit there are some true to the hunt in this forum. Not being foolish or meaning anything but good to anyone. I bet Ron has his Buck picked out to the beam size an spread, nothing more or less will fit his call when it comes to the shot he takes. Thanks for the info partner, ole Carver


If the buck had a beard and feathers he should be worried.........


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## Reelfun27 (Oct 4, 2007)

http://usahuntingpros.forumotion.com/t7780-2011-rut-predictions

Re: 2011 Rut Predictions
Willy on Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:16 am

Buck to doe ratios, human pressure are the biggest factors when you are talking about , Visible rut. Activity seen during the daylight. When you have 20 does for every buck, yes they still get rutty, they still make scrapes, chase, but they dont need to move far to find one to chase. And if she runs faster than he wants to run, no biggy all he has to do is stay put and another will be along in a minute or two. It can vary from one tract of land to the next in the same county, if the tracts of land are big enough. Its all about the ratio's. When you read rut predictions and then you dont see it, its easy to say well thats just one guys opinion. Its imposible to be able to hit it on the head for everyone, biggest reason is herd ratio's. When the herd is more in balance the bucks know they have to work harder for the available does. They start acting rutty earlier. They scrape earlier, the fight earlier, they start chasing earlier. The chase is what 99% of people call the rut. Because that is what we see. When you see a buck dogging a doe in a cut bean field in daylight, the first thing you hear is, its on, its happening now. But how many times have you seen that and then gone to the stand for the next few days and seen nothing? If your herd is way out of whack a buck an older buck may only chase a doe the day she actually ready to breed. They cross paths, he follows her around a while breeds her and then goes back to his hide out to wait for another. The closer you get to a balanced herd, the longer that same buck will follow that doe. They can tell when she is 72 hours or so away from standing for a buck. So they start following her around. They will push her out away from the areas that the majority of the herd is, the main food sources, the main bedding areas, then take them into areas that 360 days of the year you would never see a deer. If she gets up and tries to go back to the food source, he cuts her off and works her like a cutting horse keeping her where he is the only guy around. When its her time, no matter how hard she has been trying to get away from him over the previous days, she will stand for him. And when she has, she is free to go back to the rest of the group. Then he goes back in and trys to cut out another one that is getting close. Young bucks dont have the years on them, they cant tell when that 72 hours is. All they know is their hormones are telling them its time and so they chase everything they see. and they start not to long after they come out of velvet. By the 1st of November where I hunt, probably 1/2 off the 2 year old bucks will be one sided. They have been banging heads since they came out of velvet. The bigger older bucks dont get serious about it till mid October. When I say older, I mean 4 and 5 year olds. It seems the 6 year old and olders just know fighting is a waster of energy and they dont do it as much. They are kinda like me, rather spend their energy with the ladies than hanging around measuring things with other guys... I hate Bow hunting in our area once they have started cutting out the ready does. Its an excercise in frustration. You will see way more big deer no doubt, but unless the doe walks under you, you can forget doing anything with him. Hit it to early and your educating them. If they are on a nocturnal pattern early, you know your stand is in the right area, you get the pictures at night of them right by your stand but your not seeing them, everytime you go to that stand your letting him know , somebody is watching, and even though you may never get busted, how do you know you didnt get busted 5 hours after you left your stand? there is a time, usually about right now, where my cameras will start showing me way more bucks, new bucks, and more agessive behavior from the bucks. The does in the pictures will be jumpy, but one thing more than even when it was 20 degrees warmer, the activity will be at night. dispite the cooler temps for us, they are forced to wear their winter coats now. So 60 now, is like 80 or 90 was when they had their summer coats. But now they have the urge to move for two reasons, food and finding where the girls are hanging out and who the competition is. As the days go on, the urge to find the girls gets stronger than the urge to eat, and they will be on their feet more and more, eventually during daylight. I like that week just prior to those first does coming in. And if I can time it just right, its magical, its like nothing I have ever seen anywhere else I have hunted. Everything you read or hear from guys like Charlie Alsheimer talk about where the rut is concerned, happens, you get to see it. I enjoy being out in the woods more than anything. And tree time is always special, but I have learned that if I time it just right I can take 7 days and hunt hard, and be 10 times as succsesfull as if I hunted every weekend of the season. My experience tells me that the week before the November full moon is the time to be there. Until you hunt an area that has a balanced herd, where the deer dont get pressured, all that stuff you read just wont make any sense, and will sound like BS.

Willy
Super Booner!!


Posts: 1927
Join date: 2009-06-18
Age: 48
Location: Oklahoma


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## Reelfun27 (Oct 4, 2007)

http://www.qdma.com/what-we-do/articles/certification-program-readings/breeding-dates-fetal-aging/


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## Gator65 (Nov 11, 2011)

Man, Willy nailed it!

Boneyard's first post on this topic referred to an Alsheimer article 
( http://www.charliealsheimer.com/ca/moon.html ) in which he (Alsheimer) pretty much agreed with Willy's assessment of the importance of the herd's doe to buck ratio.:As important as it seems to be, that's a number that is unknown and unknowable for most of us.

"Adult-doe-to-antlered-buck ratios greater than three to one also decrease deer activity. This is primarily due to the fact that does are less active than bucks in November. With far more does than bucks in a population, every available buck is with a doe when the hot-to-trot rut arrives. On the other hand, in areas where the adult-doe-to-antlered-buck ratio is one-to-one or two-to-one, buck activity is greater because there are far less does to go around, resulting in competition between bucks for breedable does. As one might expect, we also see greater buck activity in populations that have more mature bucks in the herd."

Good stuff. Thanks for the link to the article.


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## saltgrass (Sep 1, 2008)

byrddog said:


> If the buck had a beard and feathers he should be worried.........


 
X2......... You called it Byrd...


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## byrddog (Aug 3, 2009)

saltgrass said:


> X2......... You called it Byrd...


I think ole Boneyard has a 100" maximum instead of minimum !


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## Bone Yard (Feb 2, 2009)

Man, you guy's are rough on an Old Man. I'm going to Iowa next year. I'm going to break the curse. I guess I could bring up the fact that I have taken both of you turkey hunting, Put both on birds, and the only Spur chain growing is MINE!!!! I guess You 2 have a 5 bird lifetime maximum instead of a yearly take. Thats why byrddog's avitar is him with a turkey, I be proud of the only bird I killed 2. LOL I'll have to admit it was a good one!!


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## LABDOG3 (Jan 14, 2008)

Absolutely the best description of what the RUT is all about Willy..even if the "magic" time date may be a little off for some palces..Conecuh Forest for example..but SPOT on..I like your style!!


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## Gator65 (Nov 11, 2011)

Reelfun27 said:


> http://usahuntingpros.forumotion.com/t7780-2011-rut-predictions
> 
> Re: 2011 Rut Predictions
> Willy on Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:16 am
> ...


 
Once you get too many words on the page (with no pictures), Real Sailors zone out and wait for the movie to come out. Reelfun27, you've done it again. Great video clip.


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## Emerald Ghost (Mar 11, 2008)

*Question ??*

Great read, Ron.
I have a question:
If you are going to include the "solunar table" in developing a strategy for the 7 day hunt, then why wouldn't you have started the hunting date to include January 21st and 22nd ? 
I'm sure the registry stats were a big influence, but the feeding numbers on the 21st and 22nd are twice as strong as are the last few days of the month.
Let's hear it, ...... I've got leave slips to submit .


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## Bone Yard (Feb 2, 2009)

Emerald Ghost said:


> Great read, Ron.
> I have a question:
> If you are going to include the "solunar table" in developing a strategy for the 7 day hunt, then why wouldn't you have started the hunting date to include January 21st and 22nd ?
> I'm sure the registry stats were a big influence, but the feeding numbers on the 21st and 22nd are twice as strong as are the last few days of the month.
> Let's hear it, ...... I've got leave slips to submit .


Great question. The original question that started this whole thing off was about which week to take off to hunt the rut. I started by looking at the average conception date and assuming the two or three weeks leading up to that date would see increasing buck activity. The pros like Alsheimer all say that the level of activity increases as you approach the peak and is the best time for tree stand hunters. 

I also assumed that the closer they got to the prime mating time the stupider the otherwise smart older bucks would act! (Been there, done that!) The Registry showed a large cluster of harvests in the last week of January, with the dramatic drop off going into February. 

The Registry actually shows historically good levels of harvest at various times throughout the month of January, so those aren’t throwaway days if you can get the time off. But all of the data combined with the consensus of wisdom from our local hunters added up to going with the last week of January with special attention to the mornings in the earlier part of the week. 

So, if you want to lean a bit more on the Solunar prediction you might include the 21st – 22nd in your plans but you start to move out of the historic high harvest range for big bucks indicated by the Registry data. 

I’m looking forward to seeing how all of this turns out … I think!


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## Reelfun27 (Oct 4, 2007)

Examples Full Moon is Monday Jan 9, 2012 New Moon is Monday Jan 23, 2012 Full Moon is Tuesday February 7, 2012


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## Bone Yard (Feb 2, 2009)

Alright Reelfun27, you have put a lot of time and research into the best days to hunt the rut. I have voiced my opinion, I'd like to hear yours.


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## Reelfun27 (Oct 4, 2007)

Thanks Ron, I have to start off by saying that I, as many others have already stated, have really enjoyed following your blogs and your hunting trips. Hopefully Iowa will be better next year than Kansas. 

I think what you have said, researched and your experience is spot on. While I think Solunar tables are helpful, I would have to agree that a given point in time, each year, plus or minus 5 days is when the rut will be each year. If I had to pick a day plus or minus 5 days I would say January 25. As was stated the full moon will flip flop each year and go thru cyles of plus or minus 11 days. Over many years I have tried to determine when deer were going to be killed in the old Bluewater WMA. It always seemed bucks were checked in starting around January 10 forward. Last year, deer started being killed around January 15, which was four days before the full moon. On February 3, one day after the new moon, last year I shot a 6 point and an 8 point within 30 minutes of each other. It seems like after the first week of February things slowed down for me. For me I can really only narrow it down to a three to four week range, and hunt when I can. I think in the past I always hunted way to much, early in the season, instead of concentrating on the rutting period. Then again, there is a finite number of deer that can be harvested within a given area. If a person hunts a fair number of times during the rut they should harvest some nice deer within a given area. Of course, some people always amaze me, I think they could harvest a rack buck in the parking lot of Walmart. I think they were born with a golden horseshoe. As you stated, all the normal things must come together. For me, coldfronts, are important, for extended periods of time will dramatically increase a person chances during the rut. If we don't get coldfronts during the rut most of it may take place at night and go unnoticed for the most part. 

I also started thinking that Taxidermist as yourself would have a lot of excellent data about when their clients trophies are being harvested in certain geographical areas. Thanks again for your time, efforts and accomplishments.


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## Reelfun27 (Oct 4, 2007)

Another thread I found interesting from TNdeer.com

http://www.tndeer.com/tndeertalk/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=2706299&page=1&nt=6&fpart=1


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